Home Travel Right now we are playing in overtime – Turkish seismologist warns

Right now we are playing in overtime – Turkish seismologist warns


Right now we are playing in overtime – Turkish seismologist warns of an earthquake of up to 7.6 Richter in Istanbul
A big earthquake happens every 6 to 10 years says Natchi Giorurur and stresses that “if the wheels of the economy stop in Istanbul, Turkey will collapse on its knees”

“Another seismologist in Turkey has sounded the bell for a very strong earthquake to hit Istanbul. Geologist and seismologist Professor Natchi Gyorurur said that an earthquake-resistant city should be built and that the magnitude of the earthquake expected in the city could be between 7.2 and 7.6 magnitude. “An earthquake is expected every six years to 10 years, we are currently playing the extension game.”

Specifically, speaking to TGRT Haber, the professor said that “In 1766, the faults ruptured 3 months apart, so Istanbul was faced with two earthquakes of 7 and more than 7 3 months apart. This is a very dangerous issue. If both faults rupture, there is a possibility of 7.5 and 7.6 magnitude earthquakes. In order to deal with this risk, the earthquakes and the events that may be caused by the earthquakes, how Istanbul will react, where it will be helpless and how the maximum losses will occur, have been studied for a long time in the investigations carried out since 1999.

Personally, under my chairmanship, eight international ships, including Turkish ones, are working in the entire Marmara area. We carried out these studies. We know which parts of Istanbul will be vulnerable, what our weaknesses are and which areas are vulnerable. I hope that the Mayor of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality will do what is necessary to prepare the city for an earthquake. Among these requirements are the elements of the city. The city is not prepared for an earthquake by accident.

When it comes to preparing Istanbul for an earthquake, as a significant part of today’s politicians think, they immediately think of the building stock. There are reasons for the building stock. Construction, beautiful buildings are being built. The public is satisfied, the developer is satisfied, the mayor is satisfied. Of course it’s good, renewing the city’s building stock is good for earthquakes too. It reduces damage. But it is not possible to prepare Istanbul for an earthquake with a simple building stock. If you prepare all elements of the city, the public, the infrastructure, the building stock, the ecosystem and the environment and the economy for an earthquake at the same time in an integrated way, you will have prepared the city for an earthquake.”

“There is no consensus between Istanbul and the central government”

Stressing that politics should be put aside and earthquake studies should be done, Giorur said: “There is no harmony between Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality and the central government.

In the whole world, a big city like Istanbul can be prepared by two forces working together. Politics, different parties, us or you should no longer be considered here. The safety of our people’s lives is important. After all, millions of people live here. IBB alone cannot make Istanbul earthquake-proof.

The government cannot do it without the municipality. Therefore, I hope that politics will be put aside in these matters and there will be a unity of forces. There is no cooperation between IBM and the central government. The fact is that the mayors take their job seriously. Their reasons are also obvious. Imamoglu keeps saying that Istanbul’s biggest problem is the earthquake. Similarly, Murat Kurum says the same. He is trying to convince the public. If they do what they say, Istanbul will gain a lot in terms of the earthquake.”

“We must immediately turn to seismic cities”

Stating that it is necessary to turn towards anti-seismic cities, Giorur said: “Japan recently had a 7.6-magnitude earthquake and 120 people died by chance. We cannot give 20,000, 50,000 dead in every earthquake. This is a situation that the world recognizes and it does not suit us. I don’t understand what politicians call ‘a matter of survival’. The real survival issue is the earthquake. How will we survive this century? We must turn directly to earthquake-resistant cities. We have everything to do. I want a political will that will act above politics. With the passing of the law, even the ministry will be above politics. We can make the country seismic in 10 to 15 years. I’m most afraid of the Marmara region. The reason is that the Marmara region provides about 60% of the Gross National Product. If the wheels of the economy in this region come to a halt like in the south-eastern region, Turkey will collapse on its knees. Leave aside Turkey’s economic independence, we will even be able to discuss political independence,” he said.

“There is a 47% chance of a 7 or more degree earthquake in Marmara”

Seismologist Gyorurur said Istanbul is playing the… extensions and added: “An earthquake is expected in six years plus or minus and in 10 years. We are playing the extensions. There is no way we can wait too long. The probability of a 7 or more earthquake in Marmara is 47%. We need to talk about what to do before and after the earthquake. The job is not just “yacht trap”. We need to go beyond that. Citizens should first measure the place where they live to see if it is earthquake resistant. They will know who to contact. The municipalities and the ministry will provide this service. The citizens and the state must join hands and overcome this problem. The most important element of earthquake preparedness is the public. If a people do not acquire seismic awareness, seismic culture and seismic fitness, the city will not be prepared for an earthquake.

When mayors turn their backs, the people build 10 illegal buildings. 15 illegal balconies. They build 3 floors. He leaves the sprouts, thinking that tomorrow my daughter will get married and I’ll build her a house. The election passes and the fourth floor goes up. They’re not doing it out of spite. They don’t know, they don’t understand. They don’t think the damage will come from there. If there was an earthquake in Istanbul, there would be more loss of life and property than the entire 11 provinces. There could be more than 50 thousand casualties in an earthquake in Istanbul.

Those who have technologically advanced societies consider those who have more deaths in these earthquakes to be retarded. They think that there is definitely a problem in this society. They may be right to some extent. We have to protect our own people, our own children. If you build a city with earthquake awareness, with culture and earthquake resistance with all its elements, this city will grow and develop in the future. These faults have been producing earthquakes for 13 million years and will produce earthquakes for millions of years. This is not an event that we can say is over.”